AXSM stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Axsome Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company... Show more
Why Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) Stock Is Down -13.4% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) declined approximately 13.4% over the last 30 days, falling from $245.57 on July 8 to $212.74 as of August 7, 2026.
- CEO Herriot Tabuteau sold approximately $10.5 million worth of shares on August 5–6 under a pre-arranged 10b5-1 trading plan, adding to near-term selling pressure.
- Mizuho lowered its price target from $310 to $306 while maintaining an Outperform rating, contributing to a 4% single-day decline on August 3.
- Positive clinical and regulatory developments — including FDA acceptance of the AXS-12 NDA for narcolepsy cataplexy — were overshadowed by profit-taking and pre-earnings uncertainty.
- Over the broader quarter, AXSM remained roughly flat to slightly lower, consolidating after a powerful rally that saw the stock gain over 100% in the prior twelve months.
- Analyst consensus remains a Strong Buy with an average 12-month price target of approximately $282, implying meaningful upside from current levels.
Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) Company Overview and Market Position
Axsome Therapeutics is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and delivering novel therapies for central nervous system (CNS) disorders. The company's commercial portfolio includes three FDA-approved products: Auvelity (dextromethorphan-bupropion) for major depressive disorder in adults — which also recently gained approval for agitation associated with Alzheimer's disease dementia — Sunosi (solriamfetol) for excessive daytime sleepiness associated with narcolepsy and obstructive sleep apnea, and Symbravo, a fast-acting oral treatment for acute migraine. Axsome's pipeline spans indications such as ADHD, smoking cessation, fibromyalgia, and narcolepsy cataplexy. With a market capitalization of approximately $10.95 billion and trailing twelve-month revenue of $708.24 million, Axsome has established itself as one of the more closely watched mid-cap names in the CNS biotech space.
Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
AXSM shares closed at $212.74 on August 7, 2026, reflecting a decline of roughly 13.4% from the $245.57 close on July 8 — exactly 30 calendar days earlier. The selloff was not a single-day event but rather a steady erosion punctuated by sharper down days, including a notable drop from $248.95 on July 9 to $233.80 on July 10. The stock continued to grind lower through late July and early August, ultimately touching an intraday low of $206.94 on August 3 before modestly recovering.
Zooming out to the broader quarter, AXSM's performance has been comparatively flat. From early May 2026 levels around $217, the stock briefly surged above $260 in mid-June — marking a new 52-week high — before retracing those gains. The net quarterly move of roughly -2% underscores a period of consolidation and profit-taking following a remarkable run that saw AXSM more than double over the preceding twelve months.
What Drove AXSM Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
Several factors converged to pressure AXSM shares over the past month. Most prominently, CEO Herriot Tabuteau sold approximately $10.5 million in common stock on August 5 and August 6 through the exercise of expiring options under a pre-established 10b5-1 trading plan. While the transactions were scheduled and related to the 10-year expiration of the underlying options, the size of the sales drew attention and contributed to short-term negative sentiment.
On the analyst front, Mizuho lowered its price target on AXSM from $310 to $306 in early August, triggering a roughly 4% single-day decline. Though the firm maintained its Outperform rating, the modest target reduction against a backdrop of already-falling shares amplified bearish momentum. Broader profit-taking also played a role: AXSM had rallied over 100% year-over-year, and momentum-oriented investors appeared to trim positions ahead of the company's second-quarter 2026 earnings report scheduled for August 10.
These headwinds largely overshadowed a series of positive developments, including the FDA's acceptance of the New Drug Application for AXS-12 (targeting cataplexy in narcolepsy, with a PDUFA date of May 1, 2027), BMO Capital initiating coverage with an Outperform rating and a $310 price target, and the dosing of first patients in both the FOCUS-2 and FOCUS-3 Phase 3 trials of solriamfetol in pediatric and adolescent ADHD.
What Drove AXSM Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The broader quarterly narrative for AXSM has been one of consolidation after explosive growth. From early May through mid-June, the stock rallied sharply — reaching a 52-week high of $260.19 on June 18 — fueled by enthusiasm around Auvelity's label expansion into Alzheimer's disease agitation, robust revenue growth trends, and multiple bullish analyst initiations and target increases. RBC Capital raised its price target to $304, TD Cowen moved to $300, and Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated an Overweight rating with a $272 target.
However, the second half of the quarter saw those gains fade. Investors appeared to adopt a more cautious posture, weighing elevated valuation multiples against the company's path to sustained profitability. Axsome reported full-year 2025 revenue of $638.5 million — up 66% year-over-year — but the company continues to post net losses as it invests heavily in R&D and commercial infrastructure. Insider selling activity, including director sales disclosed in June and the CEO's August transactions, further tempered enthusiasm. The net result was a quarter that started with promise, peaked in mid-June, and steadily gave back ground as the market reassessed risk-reward ahead of the Q2 2026 earnings report.
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AXSM Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
The most immediate catalyst for AXSM is the company's second-quarter 2026 earnings report, expected on August 10. Investors will closely scrutinize revenue growth across the commercial portfolio — particularly Auvelity's uptake in the newly approved Alzheimer's agitation indication — as well as updated guidance, margin trajectory, and any commentary on the path to profitability. Beyond earnings, the AXS-12 PDUFA date of May 1, 2027 represents a significant regulatory milestone, while data readouts from the FOCUS-2 and FOCUS-3 ADHD trials will shape the investment thesis around solriamfetol's pediatric expansion. Macroeconomic factors, including interest rate expectations and sector rotation within healthcare and biotech, also remain relevant. With 21 analysts covering the stock and a consensus Strong Buy rating, institutional sentiment remains broadly constructive — but execution on commercial launches and pipeline advancement will determine whether AXSM can resume its upward trajectory.
Disclaimer
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AXSM in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on July 27, 2026
AXSM moved below its 50-day moving average on July 27, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 40 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on August 20, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AXSM as a result. In of 71 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The 10-day moving average for AXSM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on July 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AXSM declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for AXSM entered a downward trend on August 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 50 cases where AXSM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AXSM just turned positive on August 18, 2026. Looking at past instances where AXSM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AXSM advanced for three days, in of 310 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
AXSM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AXSM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (131.579) is normal, around the industry mean (20.102). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (22.983). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (4.010). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.018) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (13.643) is also within normal values, averaging (443.572).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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General Information
a provider of biopharmaceutical services for pain and other nervous system
Industry Biotechnology